DraftKings Week 11 - Quarterbacks

Alright it’s DraftKings Week 11 and we have prices to review. Let’s run through the slate and see what the different avenues are for success in week 11 daily fantasy! (*all prices listed are for DraftKings)

QB

 

'The Big Four'

 

After an atrocious slate in week 10 that saw really just two avenues to go at the QB position (Fields or Mahomes), we have a nice bevy of options here highlighted by a “Big Four” at the position. By highest to lowest price:

 

Josh Allen - $8,500

Lamar Jackson - $8,400

Jalen Hurts - $8,200

Justin Fields - $7,600

 

Here’s the deal with the top four. If you could tell me that one of these four players will be way less-owned than the others by the field at large, I’d want this player. But we don’t know who of these four, if any, will be low-owned. That's why we need to project not only performance, but ownership.

 

Josh Allen ($8,500) has a great matchup at home against the Browns, and I could see him slightly less-owned than usual after a tough end to his game against the Vikings last week. Not only did Allen lose a fumble at his own goal line, he then followed that up with an ugly pick to seal the loss in OT. Perhaps folks forget how great of a DK play Allen is (averaging 29.2 DK points per game), but I doubt ownership will be anything less than 15%. If it is, then he’s a smash tournament play.

 

Allen Stack Option:

  Josh Allen $8,500

  Stefon Diggs $8,300

  Gabe Davis $6,300

  Donovan Peoples-Jones $4,600 (CLE bring back)

 

Total stack: $27,700

 

Lamar Jackson ($8,400) has a tasty matchup at home against Carolina and boy am I hoping he gets overlooked in tournaments. With so many great point-per-dollar options at QB on the Week 11 main slate, it’s possible one of these “Big 4” QBs gets overlooked. I’m hoping it’s Lamar, who has 40+ point upside as we saw in weeks 2 (48.62) and 3 (43.42) this year. Since then, Lamar has not reached 22+ DK points. 

 

I’m hopeful the field forgets about Lamar’s ceiling, even in a wonderful matchup vs the lowly Panthers defense (remember, they allowed 4 rushing touchdowns to Joe Mixon two weeks ago). If I’m playing Lamar, then I am also playing Andrews if he is healthy and ready to go. Andrews is priced at a palatable $6,800 price tag this week.

 

Jackson Stack Idea:

 Lamar Jackson $8,400

 Mark Andrews $6,800

 Terrace Marshall $4,400 (CAR bring back)

 

Jalen Hurts ($8,200) should be a popular play at Indy at a price tag below Allen and Jackson. It’s worth noting, however, that the Colts defense has looked feisty the past few weeks against Washington, New England and Las Vegas. But this Eagles team is quite different from those three, so it’s very possible Hurts gets to that 30+ point ceiling.

 

Justin Fields ($7,600) has scored 43.38 and 45.72 DraftKings points in his last two weeks. He’s been an absolute rocket ship, and the price has soared with his performance - from $5,300 to $6,500 last week and now to $7,600 this week. Now at a $7,600 price tag, Fields needs to continue to hit long rushing touchdowns to pay off, as he has not shown 300+ pass-yard upside as a thrower (in fact, his passing yard high this year is just 208 yards). He’s got a nice matchup in his home of Georgia in a dome.

 

I will likely fade Fields in favor of Allen or Jackson, as I think he will be very popular and it’s hard to expect him to keep hitting 40+ point games. I think we will see a fall back to earth, though that could very well mean 25+ DK points. 

 

Mid-Priced Options

 

We have some nice mid-price options this week, including many of the Late Swap QB’s (aka quarterbacks playing in the late afternoon games, rather than the 1:00 ET starts) on the slate. Joe Burrow ($6,800) plays in Pittsburgh, where he could tear up a banged-up Steelers secondary if Ja’Marr Chase ($7,700) is back in action. Even without Chase, Burrow has 30+ point potential and is only the 5th highest priced QB on the slate -- a full $800 below Fields.

 

Dak Prescott ($6,600) may be finding his groove after a 265 pass yard, 3 TD game in Green Bay. Dak has high upside, as well, against a Minnesota secondary that has struggled mightily in two of the past three weeks (Arizona, Buffalo). Kirk Cousins sits at $6,100 but I do not think he possesses the same upside as Burrow or Prescott, especially against the Cowboys. Sure, Dallas has struggled defensively in recent weeks, but Kirk has not scored 25+ DK points all season. Another late afternoon mid-priced QB is Russell Wilson ($5,800) who faces Las Vegas. I am not starting Russell Wilson in daily fantasy football, or season-long fantasy football, any time soon.

 

Daniel Jones ($5,700) is an ultra-intriguing option for me against the NFL’s worst pass defense in Detroit. He’s hit one ceiling game this year, which was week 7 @ Jacksonville (31.78) points and this matchup presents similar upside. Jones rushed for 107 in that game and now he faces a Lions defense that just allowed 147 rush yards and 2 TD to Justin Fields. Saquon Barkley will be very popular as the highest priced RB on the slate ($8,900) in a smash matchup, but what if Jones gets in the end zone twice with his legs rather than Saquon? Just something to consider.

 

If I'm playing Jones, I’m likely playing him naked – without any other Giants – and likely run it back with some Amon-Ra St. Brown correlation on the other side ($7,200). St. Brown has seen 30 targets the past 3 games, as he hit the 100+ receiving yard bonus in week 10 for the first time since week 2. He has still not scored since week 2, but that could certainly change in week 11.

 

The remaining mid-priced quarterbacks are not of much interest to me. Derek Carr ($5,600) faces the league’s toughest defense against QB’s in Denver, while Marcus Mariota ($5,500) has not attempted more than 30 passes since week 1. Mariota has a higher floor than most because of his legs, and you can make the argument that he has 25+ DK point potential against a porous Chicago defense (Mariota has scored 24+ DK points twice), but due to the heavy run volume of this offense, I will likely look elsewhere. The run-heavy nature of the Falcons could negatively impact Fields’ output, by the way, as the Bears may not run as many plays as they did against the high-flying Lions.

 

Matthew Stafford ($5,500) faces a road matchup in New Orleans, but his health status is unclear at the moment. Even if healthy, Stafford will not be a consideration for my lineups.

 

The Rest

 

None of the low-priced guys are calling my name. You have Jacoby Brissett ($5,400) facing a tough Buffalo defense, Jared Goff ($5,400) against a slow-paced NY Giants team, Taylor Henickie ($5,300) against a Houston defense that can’t stop the run, and Andy Dalton ($5,300) at home in the SuperDome against the Rams (not an awful matchup, but I don’t see Dalton scoring 30+ DK points like he did against the Cardinals in week 7). Kenny Pickett ($5,300) has a home matchup against the Bengals, while Davis Mills ($5,200) and Matt Ryan ($5,200) have tough matchups against Washington and Philadelphia, respectively. Mac Jones ($5,100) gets a division matchup against the Jets, while Zach Wilson ($5,000) and Baker Mayfield ($5,000) round out this QB slate. Out of all the low-priced guys, I probably prefer Wilson as he did score 22.4 DK points against the Patriots a few weeks ago. I am not playing any of these games in cash or tournaments. 

 

RB’s coming tomorrow. Enjoy MNF.

 

-Zig